Hit chance¶

Hit chance is the probability that a swing connects instead of being dodged. It's resolved before any damage rolls.

The formula¶

Lyonspyre uses a flat skill-versus-skill roll, with PvM-only specialty and talent bonuses layered on top:

Hit chance

chance = (atkSkill + 50) / ((defSkill + 50) × 2)
       + crafted material hit bonus % / 100
       + specialty hit bonus % / 100
       + Archery vs Hindered bonus % / 100   (archery only)
       - Fencing Cripple                     (PvM melee only, lowers defSkill)

That value then feeds a skill check, which means:

A hit at chance >= 1.0 is an auto-success and still gives you a chance to gain skill.
A miss costs you nothing - you simply don't connect.
atkSkill is the weapon's primary skill (Swordsmanship / Macing / Fencing / Archery / Wrestling for fists).
defSkill is whatever skill the defender's currently-equipped weapon uses - usually the same skill they'd swing with. Unarmed defenders use Wrestling.

Base chance table (pre-bonus)¶

A 100 weapon-skill attacker against a defender of the listed weapon-skill, no talents or specialties:

Defender skill	Base chance
30	93.75% (150 / 160)
60	68.18% (150 / 220)
90	53.57% (150 / 280)
100	50.00% (150 / 300)
120	44.12% (150 / 340)

The formula is symmetric: at equal skill the chance is exactly 50%. In this range, each +30 attacker skill over the defender buys roughly +10%, and each +30 of defender skill over the attacker costs about the same.

General-purpose attackers¶

For an attacker at lower skill levels:

Attacker	vs def-30	vs def-60	vs def-90	vs def-100
50	62.50%	45.45%	35.71%	33.33%
75	78.12%	56.82%	44.64%	41.67%
100	93.75%	68.18%	53.57%	50.00%
120	100.0%*	77.27%	60.71%	56.67%

* There is no upper clamp on Lyonspyre, so a high-skill-vs-low-skill chance above 1.0 always hits and still gains skill at the cap.

Bonus sources¶

Lyonspyre layers these on top of the base formula:

Source	When
Specialty hit-chance	Adds percentage points (5 = +5%).
Archery vs. Hindered	Per-rank percentage points; only applies when the defender is hindered (PvM only).
Fencing Cripple	PvM-only; lowers the defender's effective skill by 8% per stack (max 24%).
Tier accuracy on the talent ladder	See Dungeon Talents.

Player-crafted colored weapons add 1 percentage point of hit chance per material tier, from +1 at Tier 1 to +6 at Tier 6. Iron and plain wood give no material accuracy. This works in both PvM and PvP, and also applies to existing crafted weapons and coffer withdrawals. It is separate from the weapon's skill bonus: Tactics increases damage, while Archery increases bow skill. The coffer lists these separately, and Profile Stats includes material accuracy in Hit Chance.

No weapon special move or stance changes your accuracy. Discordance affects swing speed but not hit chance.

Auto-hit / auto-miss¶

There's no upper clamp: a 120-skill attacker vs. a 30-skill defender connects on almost every swing.
There's no 2% lower clamp either. With a tiny attacker skill or a huge defender skill, chance can fall all the way to zero.
The roll always happens - so even at a calculated 95% you can still miss the 1 in 20.